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At first, Trump appeared to take a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following issuing statements of "significant consequences" last August in case Vladimir Putin continued blocking ceasefire talks, he finally introduced considerable sanctions on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously impacted Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by both nations' officials without Ukrainian or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Invasion

This initiative would essentially benefit the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's political freedom in peril. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively compromise that same autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business past, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not merely about controlling a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear intention to eliminate it so it stops functions as an enticing model for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in place the currently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been failed to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear route to the capital if he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would enable future fighting simpler for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative places no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "All extremist doctrine and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has breached comparable accords in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should the international community trust this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the initiative threatens a "decisive joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the security presence, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's most reliable defense against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not