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Plug-in hybrid cars emit nearly 5x greater global warming pollution than official figures show, as per a new analysis.

Widening Gap Between Official and Actual Emissions

Data reveals that PHEVs release just one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to analysis carried out by a non-profit group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in pollution.

Researchers examined data from onboard fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand cars registered in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than lab figures, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are increasing, while official emissions are falling,” stated a senior researcher involved in the study. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a serious issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as heavily as petrol cars.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles travelled in battery power relative to total mileage. The team found that just a quarter of driving was completed in electric mode, while official estimates assumed 84%.

Additionally, when operating in electric mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than official projections. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate alone, leading to combustion motors using fossil fuels for almost a third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions enabled four major automaker groups to avoid more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs would spend about €500 more per year in running expenses than would be assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The bold statements that automakers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are obviously far from the truth,” commented a automotive expert. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ production, and operating costs.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have recently been drawn back into policy debates as automakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned ban on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive sector and opposition from EU countries with large automotive manufacturing.

Several high-level officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” solution to include in the regulation.

One independent energy economics specialist, who was not involved with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after a long period in which segments of the automotive sector argued there was too little data to accurately evaluate actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for petrol or conventional cars,” the expert stated. “All regulatory changes regarding PHEVs should be made with extreme care and in the light of that data.”