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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.