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Each time the wind gusts northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are launched across the border, with crates of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the recent period, this smuggling operation has caused Lithuania's main airport into shutdown 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the authorities are adamant they are dealing with something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an example of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian administration has declared an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Nightly Patrols

Now, nightly, border units head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent during the night.

Teams establish temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to safely stop them.

For now, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The border itself is now defined by a high security barrier, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Public Discontent

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."