Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The mean count of everyday homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that murder figures might not signal enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had in these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the least figure of murders were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for estimating the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it might hide days when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.