Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
